ANTHONY BUTLER | DA’s coalition approach falters as ANC adapts
ANC’s pragmatic strategy outlasts rivals in shifting political landscape
First published in Business Day
October 08, 2026
The Coalitions Barometer 2026, launched yesterday by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA), offers a wonderful new resource for understanding the development of coalition politics in SA.
The Barometer shows how extensive coalitions have become. Beyond the grand coalition at national level, three provincial legislatures – Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), and the Northern Cape – have coalitions in their legislatures. Since the 2021 local government elections, more than a third of municipal councils have had no majority party at some point, many of those ‘hung’ councils have been through a series of different coalition governments, each with its own configuration of parties.
The big parties have responded to the challenges of coalition politics in distinct ways. The African National Congress (ANC) has adopted what MISTRA calls a “pragmatic inclusion” approach, frequently ceding the mayoralty to small coalition partners to secure power. It extended its “governing footprint” from just 45% of hung councils in 2021 to 68% by 2025 and managed to build relatively durable partnerships.
The Democratic Alliance (DA), in contrast, has mostly insisted on leading any coalition it has joined, holding the mayoralty in 43 of the 52 administrations it belonged to. When it was unable to lead a coalition, it typically moved into opposition, and its coalitions were less enduring. The DA favoured ideologically aligned partners and so governed frequently with the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) provide another contrast, entering government 37 times, but holding the mayoralty only twice, largely because its dispersed electorate left it relatively weak everywhere. The party also made a major strategic shift in late 2022, dissolving partnerships with the DA and the IFP and turning to the ANC as its key partner.
Strikingly, the ANC and the DA did not govern together at municipal level and repeatedly tried to destabilise one another’s administrations.
The barometer’s findings suggest that the DA came out worse because of the ANC’s size, its placement as a centre party, and its strategy. Trying to government without the council’s largest party – which is most often the ANC — is the biggest predictor of coalition collapse. The DA strategy of assembling anti-ANC coalitions where the ANC was the biggest party therefore failed comprehensively.
Coalitions between parties on the ideological left and right which exclude the centre – what are known as donut coalitions — are also vulnerable to collapse because conflicting policy preferences eventually create divisions.
In terms of strategy, as we have seen, the ANC has handed the position of mayor to smaller parties to build and maintain minimum-winning coalitions. The DA’s pursuit of the mayoralty has instead pushed it into fragile coalitions that faced persistent no-confidence hazards.
Taken together, these factors have meant ANC-led coalitions lasting almost twice as long as DA-led coalitions. Despite no longer being a majority party, the ANC may well be able to draw on similar residual advantages after the 2029 national and provincial elections.
Coalitions in Metropolitan authorities have been especially unstable, and the report identifies several factors behind this instability. Metro voters divide across numerous parties, forcing aspirant governments to assemble broad and complex coalitions. In most large cities, coalitions have had little room for manoeuvre and virtually every partner, no matter how small, has held leverage. All the DA-led city coalitions that tried to govern where the ANC was the biggest party rapidly collapsed.
The report notes that Metros have multi-billion-rand budgets that raise the political stakes, and they have high levels of media exposure that make negotiation difficult. They are also plagued by posturing political leaders who engage in blackmail and tactical defection.
All this suggests that the politics of the municipalities crucial for economic growth and social development will continue to be fraught after the 4 November elections.
Butler teaches public policy at the University of Cape Town
