ANTHONY BUTLER: Ramaphosa follows Mbeki’s playbook over foreign policy

First published in Business Day and BusinessLive

14 March 2025

Though neither man will appreciate the comparison, President Cyril Ramaphosa has started to resemble his predecessor, Thabo Mbeki, at least when it comes to foreign policy.

International relations should be shaped by strategic interests rather than by the president’s personal predilections. Lord Palmerston famously observed that “we have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow”.  

Nelson Mandela did not accept this view, at least not in the idealistic article entitled “SA’s future foreign policy” that appeared under his name in the prominent journal Foreign Affairs in 1993. It emphasised that human rights would be “the light that guides our foreign affairs” and that democracy would be another touchstone.

Mandela, it transpires, had no involvement in the writing of the article, and Mbeki, who vetted it as the exiled ANC’s most accomplished diplomat, thought the human rights emphasis was dangerous. 

Mandela pushed ahead with the idealistic approach, which bolstered his moral stature even as it conflicted with the country’s economic and security interests. His condemnation of human rights abuses in Nigeria, and his push for its suspension from the Commonwealth, soured relationships across the continent.

Meanwhile, Mandela forgot human rights when historical solidarity with Cuba, North Korea and Libya was at stake. When Indonesia’s president Suharto or Taiwan offered big bundles of cash to fill the ANC’s perpetual budget hole, Mandela’s amnesia got even worse. 

Mbeki, in contrast, anchored foreign relations more securely in domestic objectives, pursuing a foreign policy of redress and development and seeking to be a predictable partner for the Global North. His focus on South-South co-operation and the African agenda, through initiatives such as the New Partnership for Africa’s Development and AU, was intended to integrate Africa into the global economy to the benefit of SA citizens. His alliances with Brazil and India amplified the collective voice of emerging democracies. 

OR Tambo’s heir also expressed sympathy for liberation movement friends and resisted Western interference. But his most controversial UN votes were undertaken to maintain support for SA’s growing ambitions in global forums, such as the UN Security Council, and so ultimately to advance the national interest and the closely related interests of the African continent. 

Mbeki cautioned about the dangers of African countries falling into a colonial relationship with China, noting that exporting raw materials to China while importing Chinese manufactured goods would leave Africa condemned to underdevelopment. He held the banana republic with rockets to the East at arms’ length, and maintained civil relations with the more advanced banana republic to the West.

Jacob Zuma immediately accepted China’s invitation to join the four-member “Bric” (Brazil, Russia, India, China) group of fast-growing (soon to be quite slow-growing) countries. A China-dominated Brics was henceforth prioritised over partners who still accounted for most of SA’s trade and investment, and Russia inexplicably emerged as Zuma’s special friend.

The Gupta family’s use of the department of international relations & co-operation as a travel agent, and the deployment of incompetent and crooked politicians to important diplomatic postings, further undermined the use of foreign policy to serve domestic interests. 

Under Cyril Ramaphosa there has been an effort to rebuild SA’s international image, and to deploy diplomacy to address the domestic economic crisis. A neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war has finally crystallised, and the case against Israel at the International Court of Justice is now carefully framed in terms of international law and not just emotional solidarity.

For the first time since Mbeki’s departure it is possible to imagine there is an underlying, if implicit, foreign policy strategy at play, based upon the national interest, even if it has not been straightforward in today’s world to realise its objectives. 

• Butler teaches public policy at the University of Cape Town.